As we move into 2026, the housing market is showing signs of stabilization and resilience, both nationally and here in the San Francisco Bay Area. From forecasts predicting stronger home sales this year to highly localized trends in Silicon Valley, understanding what’s happening now can help you plan your next move with confidence.
National Housing Outlook
2026 is shaping up to be a year of measured recovery and recalibration for the US housing market. A new Redfin report predicts that the coming year will usher in what it calls “The Great Housing Reset,” a multi-year period of gradually rising home sales and improving affordability, as income growth begins to outpace home price appreciation for the first sustained stretch since the Great Recession.
This outlook aligns closely with projections from the National Association of REALTORS®. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, several key factors are converging to support increased activity and steady price growth:
Existing home sales are forecast to increase by 14%
Home prices are expected to rise by approximately 4%
Mortgage rates are projected to decline toward an average of 6%
Job growth is expected to remain moderate, with about 1.3 million new jobs added
Yun notes that 2026 “is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” adding that “home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining” as long as housing supply remains constrained. Together, these forecasts suggest a market that is stabilizing, offering renewed opportunity for both buyers and sellers as affordability continues to improve.
Bay Area Market Snapshot
The Bay Area market continues to operate differently from much of the country. High wages and stock-based compensation, strong tech and AI growth, and the return to in-person work continue to drive demand, while limited housing supply keeps competition high.
Even as seasonal slowdowns reduced overall sales activity and inventory levels in the last 2 months, well priced homes, particularly in the luxury segment, continued to attract strong competition, supporting a healthy seller’s market as the year came to a close.
Market Highlights
Santa Clara County: Active listings increased 16% year-over-year, median sale prices dipped slightly (~1–2%), homes sold in 12–26 days.
San Mateo County: Closed sales rose 5% to 317, while median prices declined ~4–6%.
Alameda County: Median prices fell ~5%, days on market edged higher, and sales activity remained relatively balanced.
View Complete County Stats – November 2025
📄 Santa Clara County – Single Family | Condo/Townhouse
📄 San Mateo County – Single Family | Condo/Townhouse
📄 Alameda County – Single Family | Condo/Townhouse
Key Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers
The Bay Area market remains dynamic yet navigable. As both inventory and demand are expected to rise this year, localized trends will create opportunities for buyers and sellers alike, making the guidance of a knowledgeable real estate professional more important than ever.
For Buyers:
Slightly lower mortgage rates (~6%) increase purchasing power, especially for those who delayed entering the market in 2024–2025.
Rising seasonal inventory provides more options, creating opportunities to find well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods.
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes will likely face competition, so acting decisively is crucial.
Partnering with a local expert can help identify opportunities, navigate bidding scenarios, and ensure buyers don’t miss out in competitive micro-markets.
For Sellers:
Increased buyer demand will help listings move faster, reducing time on market.
Homes in top school districts, near tech job hubs, or in highly sought-after communities continue to attract strong interest.
Strategic pricing and decisive marketing remain critical to maximize offers and avoid extended days on market.
Reach Out & Connect
Whether you're looking to buy or sell, you need an experienced guide in this complex and fast-paced real estate market. I've helped hundreds of individuals like you successfully negotiate the most important financial transaction you'll ever make.
For buyers and sellers, I invite you to contact me to discuss your situation and options.